Zkuste LEFT JOIN tímto způsobem:
UPDATE watchedItems
LEFT JOIN bidGroups ON watchedItems.bidGroupID = bidGroups.bidGroupID AND bidGroups.id=2
SET watchedItems.won=1, bidGroups.bidGroupQty=bidGroups.bidGroupQty-1
WHERE watchedItems.id=2
AND watchedItems.aid=200618152822;
......